Population of Jakarta (Indonesia)

Population of Jakarta (capital of Indonesia) to around 10,67 million people by 2023, according to official figures from the Indonesian Statistics Bureau.

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Previously, the 2020 Census recorded Jakarta as having 10.562.088 people. Thus, in the period 2020–2023, the population increased very slowly (only about 110 thousand people, equivalent to an increase of ~1% in 3 years). To put it in a longer context, Jakarta's population increased from about 9,58 million people in 2010 to more than 10,56 million in 2020 - an increase of about 1 million people in a decade, lower than the growth rate of previous decades.

In the past 5–10 years, the population growth rate has slowed down significantly. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Jakarta was still growing at about ~1% per year; but by 2021 it was only ~0,6%, by 2022 it was about 0,64%, and by 2023 it was only 0,38% – the lowest in the country. This shows that Jakarta's population is gradually approaching saturation.

It is worth noting that population figures may vary depending on the source of statistics. The Bureau of Statistics (BPS) typically publishes population figures based on censuses and estimates, while the Department of Home Affairs (Dukcapil) bases its statistics on administrative registration. According to the BPS, the actual permanent population in 2020 was around 10,56 million, but Dukcapil estimates the figure to be higher. Administrative statistics indicate that Jakarta's population will reach around 2024 million by mid-11,13.

This discrepancy may be due to the inclusion of long-term unregistered migrants or differences in counting methods. Nevertheless, both sources indicate that Jakarta’s population has now exceeded 10–11 million, with a very low growth rate in recent years.

Age and sex structure of Jakarta's population

Jakarta’s population is relatively young and gender balanced. According to the 2020 Census, about 23% of the population is under the age of 15 (children), nearly 72% is of working age (15–64), and only about 5% is 65 years old or older. This reflects a young city with an abundant workforce, while the proportion of the elderly is low.

The median age is estimated to be in the early 30s. In terms of gender, males are slightly more numerous than females – approximately 50,5% males to 49,5% females (~102 males/100 females). This gender structure is fairly balanced, indicating that there is no significant difference between the number of males and females in Jakarta’s population.

Looking at the population pyramid in 2021 (Figure 2), it can be seen that the base is quite wide in the younger age groups (0–4, 5–9, 10–14), indicating that Jakarta still has a significant number of children and adolescents. However, compared to previous decades, the proportion of the younger group is gradually decreasing due to low fertility. The body of the pyramid (age group 20–54) is very wide, indicating that the majority of the population is in the working age group 35–39, which is the largest group. The top of the pyramid (age group 65+) is relatively small, reflecting that the elderly population does not yet account for a large proportion.

The trend of population aging has begun to appear but is happening slowly. The main reason is that the birth rate in Jakarta is lower than the replacement level. Statistics in 2020 show that Jakarta's total fertility rate (TFR) is only about 1,75 children/woman - the lowest in the country. This fertility rate below 2,0 will cause the proportion of children to gradually decrease and the proportion of the elderly to increase in the future, if there is no compensatory immigration. On the contrary, the average life expectancy of Jakarta residents is quite high (estimated at over 72 years old), so the number of elderly people will increase in absolute terms, although currently only accounting for 1/20 of the population.

Population density and distribution by administrative region

Jakarta is famous as one of the most crowded cities in the world. With a land area of ​​about 664 km² and over 10,6 million people, population density The city’s average population density in 2022 is expected to be around 16.000 people per square kilometer. This is several times higher than the national average and among the highest among major global cities. The high population density puts great pressure on Jakarta’s transport, housing and public service infrastructure.

However, population density is unevenly distributed among the administrative districts within the city. Jakarta is divided into 5 urban administrative cities (kota) and 1 suburban administrative district (kabupaten) (Seribu Archipelago). The table below summarizes the population, area, and density of each district (2023 figures):

From the table above, it can be seen that Jakarta East (Eastern District) is the most populous district with about 3,08 million people (accounting for nearly 29% of the city's population). Next is Jakarta West (~2,47 million) and Jakarta South (~2,23 million). Jakarta Central (central district) has only ~1,05 million people - the least among the districts - but is the most densely populated area, about 20 thousand people/km².

The reason why Central Jakarta is so dense is because it is an urban core with a small area (only ~52 km², accounting for less than 8% of the city's total area) but concentrates many old residential areas, commercial streets and offices.

Meanwhile, North Jakarta has a fairly large area (including the coastal area), so the average density is the lowest among the 5 kotas (~12,9 thousand people/km²), although the population is also approximately 1,8 million. South and East Jakarta have the largest area, large population, and average density of the city (about 14-17 thousand/km²). The Seribu Islands district alone is an offshore island area with a sparse population (only ~28 thousand people on 11 inhabited islands), with a density of about 2,8 thousand/km² - very low compared to inner city Jakarta.

In general, Jakarta's population density remains high throughout the metropolitan area, especially concentrated in the central area and traditional inner-city districts. Jakarta's government is constantly facing the consequences of high density such as traffic congestion, cramped housing, lack of public space, etc. Redistributing population and reducing the load on the central area is a difficult problem for Jakarta's urban planning.

Population distribution in inner city and suburbs

Although Jakarta is densely populated throughout the city, there is a distinction between the “urban core” and the periphery in urban development. “Urban” Jakarta can be understood as the historical central districts (especially Central Jakarta) and the older built-up urban areas where government, commerce and residential areas have been concentrated since the colonial era. These areas are now close to population saturation.

In fact, the population of Central Jakarta is showing a slight decline (decreasing by about 8 thousand people from 2015 to 2023) due to limited land and a part of the population moving out. On the contrary, the “peripheral” areas within Jakarta’s boundaries such as East, South, and West – which were previously developed later – are still increasing in population (albeit slowly) thanks to the urbanization process expanding towards the city’s edge.

More importantly, the urban sprawl beyond Jakarta's administrative boundaries has created a giant metropolis called Jabodetabek (comprising Jakarta and its satellite cities: Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi). Many people work in Jakarta but live in its surrounding areas, so Jakarta's daytime population can exceed its permanent population by several million people.

As of 2022, the greater Jakarta metropolitan area is estimated to have a population of 32,6 million, making it the second most populous metropolitan area in the world (after Tokyo). This means that the majority of Jakarta's urban population actually lives on the periphery, outside the city limits, in satellite districts/cities in West Java and Banten provinces.

This population distribution reflects a trend of population dispersion from the central core: many people (especially the middle and working class) choose to move to the outskirts or suburbs for lower living costs or more spacious housing, then commute to the center every day. This has helped to somewhat slow down the growth of Jakarta’s inner-city population over the past decade. However, it has also put pressure on the transport system connecting Jakarta and its surrounding areas, as millions of people have to travel between regions every day.

In summary, Jakarta’s population is currently concentrated in the peripheral districts and border areas, while the central core tends to grow slowly or decrease in population due to the lack of room for development. The periphery of the metropolitan area (outside Jakarta) continues to attract more residents, leading to a “multi-center megacity” urban model instead of concentrating all of it in the inner city of Jakarta.

Factors affecting Jakarta's population change

Jakarta's population dynamics are influenced by many factors, including natural increase/decrease, migration, urbanization, and urban management policies.

Natural increase/decrease (birth - death)

Natural factors are playing an increasingly small role in Jakarta’s population growth, due to low fertility. As mentioned, the TFR is only ~1,75 (2020) – much lower than the replacement fertility rate of 2,1. Thanks to good health care, Jakarta’s mortality rate is also low (life expectancy ~72-73 years), but overall natural increase is very low. Data show that in the period 2010–2019, natural increase contributed less than 1%/year to population growth; by 2020–2023, there were years when natural increase was almost zero due to a decrease in births and an increase in deaths (especially in 0 when the COVID-2021 pandemic caused a high mortality rate).

The pandemic has had a serious impact: in 2021, Jakarta's population grew by only 0,6% (a sharp decrease from ~1% in previous years), and in some quarters it may even be negative due to excess deaths. After the pandemic, the birth rate has not recovered significantly, so the contribution of natural increase remains limited.

Migration and mechanics

Historical inter-provincial migration has been the main driver of Jakarta’s population boom for decades. In the past, people from all over Indonesia flocked to Jakarta in search of jobs and opportunities, especially after Jakarta was chosen as the capital (1945). During the 1950s–1970s, Jakarta’s population grew many times over, not only due to births but also mainly due to immigration (when Jakarta received an average of 3–4% of its population each year).

However, this trend has now changed. Migration into Jakarta has slowed significantly, even reversing slightly. This is due to the high cost of living in Jakarta, the development of job opportunities in other provinces gradually narrowing the gap, and Jakarta itself encouraging population dispersal. After each holiday (Lebaran), the number of migrants entering Jakarta gradually decreases: for example, after Lebaran 2023, there were only about 25,9 thousand new migrants – a relatively small number compared to a population of tens of millions. During the pandemic, many unemployed workers left Jakarta to return to their hometowns, contributing to a very low population growth in 2020–2021.

Nowadays, Jakarta is no longer the strong “magnet” for attracting people as before; instead, neighboring satellite cities are more attractive to immigrants because of available land and cheaper costs.

Urbanization and urban expansion

Jakarta has undergone a period of intense urbanization throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries. The city has expanded from its original size (the old Batavia core) to its peripheral districts. However, Jakarta currently has almost no room for further urbanization within its own boundaries.

Urbanization thus shifted to the periphery (the neighboring Jawa Barat and Banten regions). Jakarta still indirectly benefited from urbanization as the greater metropolitan area grew, but Jakarta’s own population grew very little. On the other hand, rapid urbanization in the past had consequences for population management: many spontaneous, high-density housing areas made planning difficult.

The government once applied a “closed city” policy in the 1970s (under Governor Ali Sadikin) to limit immigration to Jakarta, but it was not successful in the long term.

Today, Jakarta's urbanization is mainly about internal redevelopment (e.g. slum reclamation, high-rise apartment buildings to increase capacity) rather than outward expansion.

Administrative policy – ​​Capital relocation plan

The biggest policy factor at the moment is the plan to move Indonesia’s capital from Jakarta to the new city of Nusantara (East Kalimantan province). This move is expected to have a significant impact on Jakarta’s population in the medium to long term.

According to the plan, starting from 2024, a part of government agencies and human resources (civil servants, experts) will move to Nusantara. The Indonesian government aims to have about 2045 million people living and working in the new capital by 1,9. This includes a large number of people currently in Jakarta (officials, central civil servants, their families and support services).

If the plan goes ahead, Jakarta could lose a significant portion of its population (estimated to be between hundreds of thousands and over 1 million people) over the next two decades due to migration to the new capital. However, experts say there will not be an immediate mass exodus from Jakarta.

The transition will be gradual and Jakarta will still maintain its role as the economic and financial center of the country. Even after losing its administrative functions, Jakarta (expected to be granted special status as an “economic city”) can attract more business and service activities, retaining the majority of the population.

However, the net impact of the capital relocation is likely to further reduce Jakarta's population growth, possibly leading to a stable or slight population decline in the future if there are no other sources of population growth to offset it.

Combining the above factors, it can be seen that Jakarta's population is in an important transition period. From a megacity that grew rapidly due to immigration and urban expansion in the past, Jakarta is now entering a period of slow growth and population redistribution.

Low natural increase, dispersed migration and the urban relocation policy all contribute to keeping Jakarta’s population from growing too high. This has positive implications in terms of reducing urban pressure (reducing traffic jams and infrastructure overload), but also poses challenges for socio-economic development as the labor force growth slows and the population ages.

Jakarta’s government will need appropriate strategies to manage population in the new context – such as improving the quality of life in the inner city to limit the flow to the periphery, and transforming the city’s economic model after it ceases to be an administrative capital.

References:

1. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) – Jakarta population data by census and annual estimates.
2. BPS Jakarta – Population Thematic Analysis Report (Long Form Sensus 2020) and Population Data by Age and Gender.
3. Jakarta Government – ​​Invest Jakarta provides population and administrative area statistics.
4. GoodStats Report (2024) – Analysis of Jakarta's population growth rate 2016-2023.
5. Katadata (2021) – Total Fertility Rate (TFR) statistics of Indonesian provinces, shows that Jakarta is the lowest in the country.
6. CNBC & Bloomberg (2023) – Reports on Nusantara's capital relocation plan and expected population shift away from Jakarta.

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