South America

Population of São Paulo (Brazil)

08/04/2025
Population Information

Population of São Paulo (City of Brazil) is about 22,99 million people by 2025. It is the 5th most populous city in the world, according to data from World Population Review.

Total population

The total population of the São Paulo metropolitan area in 2025 is estimated at 22,99 million, according to MacroTrends and World Population Review, based on data from the UN World Urbanization Prospects (2024 Revision). In 2024, the population of São Paulo is estimated to be 22,81 million, up from 22,62 million in 2023.

São Paulo has an area of ​​approximately 7.947 km², with population density about 2.893 people/km². From 2020 (22,04 million) to 2025, the population will increase by about 950.000 people, with an average growth rate of 0,8-0,9% per year, mainly due to internal migration from the northeastern regions of Brazil and economic development (São Paulo contributes 30% of Brazil's GDP). However, the growth rate has slowed down significantly compared to the previous period due to low fertility rates (estimated at 1,6-1,8 children/woman in 2023) and urban saturation.

Gender structure

Specific data for São Paulo in 2025 has not been released, but is based on the 2022 national census from IBGE:

  • Male: 49,0% (about 10,80 million people out of a total of 22,04 million in 2020).
  • Female: 51,0% (about 11,24 million people).

The sex ratio is 96 males/100 females, lower than the national average (97 males/100 females), due to women having a longer life expectancy (79,5 years compared to 72,5 years for men, according to IBGE 2022). Assuming this ratio remains stable until 2025, with a total population of 22,99 million, males will account for approximately 11,27 million and females 11,72 million. This slight difference reflects an aging trend, with females dominating the older age groups in a large urban center like São Paulo.

Population of São Paulo (Brazil)
Sao Paulo City (Brazil)

Age structure

Brazil's age structure in 2024, according to World Population Review and IBGE, is:

  • Under 15 years old: 18,0% (about 38,36 million people out of a total of 212,81 million).
  • From 15-64 years old: 67,0% (about 142,58 million people).
  • Over 65 years old: 15,0% (about 31,92 million people).

In São Paulo, the age structure is likely to be similar but slightly older due to high urbanization and a lower than national average birth rate. Estimated 2025:

  • Under 15 years old: 17,5% (about 4,02 million people).
  • From 15-64 years old: 66,5% (about 15,29 million people).
  • Over 65 years old: 16,0% (about 3,68 million people).

São Paulo’s median age is estimated at 36–37 years, higher than the national average (34,8 years), reflecting the faster aging of larger cities. The proportion of people over 65 is increasing due to high life expectancy (76,0 years for both sexes) and falling birth rates, while the working age group (15–64) remains the majority but is shrinking.

Population change

Historical data from MacroTrends and UN Data:

  • 1950: 2,33 million people.
  • 1980: 12,59 million people.
  • 2000: 17,10 million people.
  • 2010: 20,26 million people.
  • 2020: 22,04 million people.
  • 2025: 22,99 million people (estimated).

From 1950 to 2000, São Paulo's population grew rapidly (an average of 5-6% per year from 1950 to 1980, and 2-3% from 1980 to 2000), due to rural migration (especially from the Northeast of Brazil) and economic development (São Paulo is a financial and industrial center). From 2010 to 2020, the growth rate decreased to 0,8-1% per year, and from 2020 to 2025 it continued to maintain 0,8%, due to:

  • Low birth rate (1,6-1,8 children/woman).
  • Urban space is saturated, pushing migration to satellite cities such as Campinas and Sorocaba.
  • International migration has declined (mainly from Bolivia, Haiti in the past decade).

Forecast

São Paulo population projections based on national and regional trends:

  • Short term (until 2035): The population could reach 23-24 million, growing at 0,3-0,5% per year, thanks to its role as an economic hub and infrastructure projects such as the expanded São Paulo Metro. However, growth is limited by low birth rates and limited urban space.
  • Long term (until 2050): The population could decline below 22 million, due to declining fertility (expected to be below 1,6 children per woman), population aging (20-25% over 65), and negative net migration to neighboring regions. This is consistent with the national projection of Brazil peaking at 220 million in 2041 and declining to 199,2 million in 2070 (IBGE 2024).

The São Paulo government is investing in transportation (Rodoanel, metro), housing, and pro-birth policies, but pressures from aging, high living costs, and pollution pose major challenges.

Sources:

Brazil population 2024

Do you know?

View: 1.422